Real Estate: No Light in Sight

Real Estate: No Light in Sight

For those in the real estate industry and for those looking to buy or sell a home, it could take until 2009 to catch a break.

That's the forecast from Doug Duncan, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).   Duncan expects national median home prices to fall between 2 percent and 4 percent both this year and next. Prices will be held back by an oversupply of homes for sale, an increase in foreclosures and continued uncertainty among mortgage investors.

For this year, Duncan is predicting a 22 percent drop in new home sales and a 12 percent drop in existing home sales, followed by a 10 percent drop in each next year.

What? No good news?

There's one group of home buyers, home sellers and loan originators who will have an easier time of it than everyone else: those dealing with "anything that's conventional and conforming," Duncan said. In other words, 30-year fixed rate mortgages for borrowers with good credit under the "jumbo" cutoff of $417,000.