Home Prices Going Up, Down, Sideways

Is real estate heating up, cooling down, headed for a deeper freeze, or just hanging in there despite the challenges?

Pick your own theory, but the latest federal report on home real estate price appreciation offers support for each of those scenarios. The third-quarter "house price index'' compiled by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight examined changes under way in 275 of the largest metropolitan markets.

Unlike other studies, the index survey tracks actual value shifts in millions of existing houses whose mortgages are owned or included in securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

Read more about the four possible scenarios considering the future of the real estate market…

Credit Scores Cause Confusion

When you buy your credit score, it's almost certainly not the same number your mortgage lender will see.

Your lender might see a lower score, or even one calculated on a different scale. It means you could apply for a loan thinking you deserve a low interest rate, but end up paying a higher one because your score wasn't as good as you assumed.

Confusion arises because consumers and lenders often see different credit scores. As if that didn't create enough of a misunderstanding, customers, lenders and credit bureaus each view credit scores from their own perspectives.

Housing Market Improving

According to the National Association of Realtors, prospects for existing home sales may improve in the coming year, relative to this year's sluggish pace, while new home sales are expected to continue their slide into 2007.

Nonetheless, NAR said home prices will continue to appreciate this year, even as market activity slows dramatically. The national median existing-home price for all of 2006 is projected to rise 1.4% to $222,600, with another 1.0% gain next year to $224,700, according to NAR. The median new-home price should fall by 0.5% to $239,700 this year, followed by a slight 0.8% increase in 2007 to $241,700.

Based on NAR forecasts, existing-home sales are expected to be 6.47 million for all of 2006, which would be a decline of 8.6% from 2005. In 2007, the pace of sales is expected to rise steadily from the current low and reach an annual total of 6.40 million, which would be 1.0% lower than this year's total.

"By the fourth quarter of 2007, existing-home sales will be 4.6% higher than the current quarter," said David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, in a statement accompanying the forecast.

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Home Sales May Keep Falling in 2007

The National Association of Realtors predicted that next year will likely bring a second annual decline in existing home sales.

Sales of existing homes are expected to decline 8.6 percent to 6.47 million for 2006 and contract another 1 percent to 6.40 million units next year.

Still, the housing sector should see a rebound by the end of next year, said David Lereah, the association's chief economist.

"By the fourth quarter of 2007, existing-home sales will be 4.6 percent higher than the current quarter," Lereah said.

Sales of new homes should fall a sharp 17.7 percent this year and another 9.4 percent next year, the NAR projected.

Read more about the National Association's predictions for the next year…

Real Estate Expected to Flounder in 2007

Although few experts predict that home values will fall dramatically in 2007, many economists say that prices won't improve for 12 to 18 months. And without the cushion of rising home equity — which softened the blow of high oil prices last year and kept consumers buying big-ticket items at a rapid clip — Americans may lose confidence in their finances, and the broader economy is likely to suffer.

Ambitious building booms in many markets in the past half-decade, combined with mortgage interest rates that have increased about 1 percent in the past year, have resulted in residential real estate stagnation. The gridlock defies conventional wisdom, stubbornly remaining neither a buyer's nor a seller's market.

"We are currently experiencing the worst of the market freeze, which is being exacerbated by the gap between the buyer's desire for bargains and the seller's fantasy of what they once thought their homes would be worth," said Diane Swonk, chief economist for Chicago-based Mesirow Financial, who forecasts a rebound in early 2008. "The good news is that there are some signs of stabilization. The bad news is that a substantial backlog of unsold homes still exists."

Read the complete story here…